Talking Barbie was awesome until one day she started saying – math class is hard, which is a stereotype which resonated with a lot of people.
You Are Good At Math
Math class might be hard because math isn’t what they teach. They want you to take a test so they can find an easy way to shuffle you.
So you might be not good at memorizing equation or arithmetic.
You do math all the time. Even for walking, you need to take calculated force so that it lifts enough and you can place it down.
When a kid picks up grape, she knows those are five grapes. Not because she memorized it. But because math is pure and real and you are good at it.
The Monty Hall Problem
If you are above 30 years, then you would know that Monty was a great host. And the game revolves around giving deals which were based on probabilities.
Here is the monty hall program:
Monty gives you a choice with three curtains. Behind one curtain is 3 million dollars, and the other two has a goat behind each one. And by the way, you can’t keep the goat – they are to humiliate you.
You are asked to choose by giving your $1000. That’s an excellent bet because there is a ⅓ chance of you winning 3 million dollars.
So you choose curtain number 2.
Now Monty shows you curtain number 1 has a goat. And ask you – do you want to switch.
You might feel you shouldn’t switch or the odds might remain the same.
The truth is switching increases your winning probability by more than 50 percent – about the ⅔ chance of winning.
Maybe you should pay upwards of a million dollars to be able to switch.
What’s Going On
How the odds of switching increases and how the odds remain the same by sticking.
If you are brainwashed by talking barbie or you think math class is hard, then you might ask what’s the formula.
But the problem of memorizing the formula is that life rarely looks like a textbook.
You have to look at the information Monty provides. You already knew that there were two goats. So by showing one goat, you don’t have any new information, so the odds don’t change by sticking.
It happens because Monty already knows where the goat is, and that curtain has been opened.
Now if a friend of your walks in, by the information available they have to choose between your curtain and remaining curtain, so she has 50 percent chances.
But for you, if you switch, then you know that curtain with a goat is deliberately showed. So the chances of winning behind three curtains dramatically increases.
Edge Case To Understand
What if there were 100 curtains with one having 3 million dollars and rest have goats.
And you choose curtain number 2. So Monty proceeded to show goats behind every curtain, and there is only one curtain number 3 remaining.
It’s pretty clear the remaining curtain is a good bet.
So you can understand intuitively that switching is a no-brainer.
Sticking still has winning probability 1/100.
In all cases, the total of all probability is 1. The only way to lose if you switch is if you guessed it right by randomly selecting curtain 2.
In any case, switching has more probability, so you have more chances of winning.
What To Do?
But Monty Hall Problem doesn’t happen in real life. That’s what you might think.
But similar problems are there in real life.
Kids aren’t encouraged to understand infinity, play such games, or what is a probability.
This is one reason why sunk costs aren’t understood. Because you are stuck with emotional baggage, don’t go and learn Bayesian probability.
Instead, the way forward is to understand what a royal flush is or what cards are in the deck when some card is played. Try to navigate with situations by following them.
Difference between freelancers and Entrepreneurs
Freelancers get paid when they work. Entrepreneurs build assets who hires best someone else than you.
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- When to do face to face meeting and when to use online meeting technology like Skype?
Some people are born into wealth, certain privileges, and talents. But your time is limited.
So when you want to show that you care about the meeting or person, going in person is a statement that you care.
But online meeting video technology saves a lot of time and other secondary things like fuel for the vehicle.
The best way is to meet the first time in person to show that you care. And next time switch to online conferencing video like Zoom but there needs some convention.
Such as better lightning, use of a microphone, and a good posture so that you care is a statement is still communicated.
Of course, there is a long Ethernet cable between you and the other person, but you don’t have to act that way.
- How to change the culture of payment terms of paying with delay affecting cash flow?
Accepting delayed payments is a competitive advantage. So if you are going to tell you that you want a payment on time, then you might lose business.
But you need to figure out what is that you are unique.
Because if you are selling the generic thing, then you will lose to another generic company with deeper pockets.
If you are only providing a sure thing, then you will be paid on time.
Another thing is to raise your price if you are being paid later. Acknowledge them in your standard pay.
You won’t get many gigs, but the god that you get will pay for you to survive better.
Go ahead and be better at your competitive advantage and play by it.