Moore’s Law

It’s not just a good idea…

Law Vs Theory

The law defines how the world around you functions. The theory is the explanation of why it happens.

And people keep on explaining better things. Thus theories get better.

In 1968, Douglas gave demo – of a mouse, hypertext and many other things. But 10 years prior he predicted computers will become faster, shorter and cheaper.

About 5 years later, Gordin wrote a theory in a paper that based on innovation; computers will get cheaper and faster. In fact, you can buy 2 times for what you buy now in the next 2 years. One of this colleague turned it into Moore’s law – stating in 18 months, computers will get double in power and speed.

If it is applied to your house, you can buy your current house @30 dollar.

Practice Effect

Imagine a world in which things get better by practice. For example, if you used a wooden stick as a crutch and the more you used, the better crutch it became.

So, you could work for rich people so that your tools would simply get better by practicing.

But this isn’t true in real life. But Moore’s law is.

So many things computers are touching are getting better by Moore’s law:

  • LED watches were super expensive. So one company sold at a lower price to ramp up the volume and then effectively make a profit because of new production. So in effect, they made a huge profit by selling cheap. Because they got better at making more things.
  • Once you build one thing and make it efficient. You can make things better and cheaper next thing. Not true for all things though – for example, oil drilling.
  • The experience curve makes us efficient at scale
  • Computers can now make computers. As you get more powerful computers, they make more of them.
  • Big networks get more efficient. So a computer network is more powerful than just a computer.

The Future

Your smartphone didn’t exist 50 years back. So in the future, the smartphone or computer will get cheaper and more efficient. Hence, because of the network effect – a computer in your pocket will cost $8 instead of $800.

This will make it abundant at every place – in tyre, clothes and many other things.

Let’s take yahoo’s downfall – Yahoo was a directory so they hired hundreds of people – and judging which websites belong to which category.

Google turned that upside down – they based their search on PageRank which was dependent on computer chips. And those were getting cheaper and faster every 18 months.

More computer power tomorrow means everything you do will get affected by Moore’s law.

Onto You

Moore’s law isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. So the question is – are you behaving like Yahoo and focusing on now.

Or you are focused on the things you use will get better and cheaper. And are you ready for the upgrade. Don’t be too much focused on the convenience of today. Be ready to take the leap – because it will come.

And when it comes you need to be on the acceptance of Moore’s law. Thus making your life better and efficient.

Questions

  • How to connect with large groups efficiently, is it possible?

Groups are getting better, it is not possible to connect with 100s of people at a time.

You have no choice but to create a smaller group. You can choose based on random or semi-probability or based on some form of merit.

So you can say – there are only 100 spots and that’s it. Just make sure how you make the selection. Whatever you do – base your selection on how you want to be seen.

  • How to get rid of compliance?

If winning in a system helps you then you may pay the price of compliance. On the other side, if losing doesn’t matter to you, do lose but prepare for the consequences.

Most of the times you don’t choose the system. If you don’t choose metabolism and you don’t go to the gym, you can’t walk like Linda Hamilton.

As long as you chose this, you need to do what you have do because you have decided to pay the price of compliance.

Monopolies, Big companies and letting them charge what they want is a good thing. Why should they be not allowed to do that?

Yes, Walmart is an example of a big company working efficiently. Hard to say that about many countries in the world. But once it crosses a threshold, Monopolies come in place and it has major problems:

  1. The choice is a big thing. There can be consequences but at least you have a choice. Walmart has not crossed that threshold. So once it reaches a monopoly status, they will keep the innovation away.
  2. So they can charge what they want because consumers have no choice. And thus you are not happy. Taking away choice is a big problem of monopoly.
  3. When people who want to make a change, they find a new place where there is no monopoly. When AOL’s permission was needed to make a content site, there was less innovation. After internet, there came much great innovations.
  4. So a choice needs to be there as a consumer and as a creator.
  5. Of course, many big companies have made what is possible today as efficiently as possible.
  6. But if a monopoly would have been allowed, they would have cornered one market. And then went after another market.